[01/27] A month of uncertainties continued. Today, many economic data were reported and most of them were good. Weekly jobless claims fell more than 30,000 to 260K. The economic growth rate in 2021 was 5.7% which is the highest number in 40 years and even higher than China in 20 years. Fourth-quarter GDP growth increased 6.9%. US government poured US$ 6 trillion last year as pandemic relief. These numbers were the result of those efforts for sure. But do we feel any better these days? Listed companies keep reporting their fourth-quarter numbers now. So far, 145 of S&P 500 listed companies reported and 79% of them were showing better than expected results of the fourth quarter. The atmospheres of the market changed to the full of bright tomorrow. However, late afternoon, all US major indexes were reversed from gain again. DJ fell 0.42%, S&P fell 0.82% and NASDAQ lost 1.43%. Another big loss. Changing the form of resources from stocks to USD becomes the virtue of good trading this week. Russians were embarrassed a bit from unexpected strong responses of Western countries, they are backed off a bit today and say “Let’s talk again” Once again, no one is showing any interest in what real Ukraine people want. No one even asks them…Another ghost land there? With a bit of softer tensions, crude oil downed today. Brent oil futures fell 62 cents and ended at $89.34 per barrel. US Dollar climbed up again, jumped 0.8% today. This is the biggest one-day jump in nearly two months. USD Index ended at 97.299, the highest since Jul 2021. Uncertainties will continue for a while, but big pictures would be based on “TOO BIG TO FAIL” concepts.
In the Ag market, China will be in their Lunar’s New year holiday season, starting next Monday for a week. Chinese covered a few soybean cargos here and there but not too many. They might think the current price level is too high. No reason to buy in hurries. Partly agreed on that, it’s been upside now for almost 2 months now. Time to have some rest but fundamental are not that good at all as we know well. The long-term weather forecast over Argentine changed its pictures to drier than a week ago. Drought could be continued to the end of Feb in the Argentine and Southern Brazil areas. Argentine is the largest soybean meal exporter in the world. This is the main factor for today’s strong soybean group rallies. In the Chicago futures market, Soybean up 0.57%, soybean meal up 1.05% but corn fell 0.28% and wheat downed 2.26%…These two downers were the Russian’s responsibilities. We’re in the middle of the South American weather market and so far, their weather seems not so good.