[02/24] Russia finally invaded Ukraine today. US and Allies have not taken any physical actions against Russians. Instead, they are blocking all possible traded with Russians and freezing their offshore wealth.
In the morning, it was the looks like the end of the world, but all recovered at the end of the day. What was happening? As all we know, uncertainties and fears are the main driving force of the market.
Russians invaded that poor country. That’s the big removal of uncertain possibilities. Because Russians will win that war without any doubt. Everybody is busy drawing the picture the maps after this war.
With that simple view, the current global stock markets are well oversold. DJ was up 0.28%, S&P was up 1.51% and NASDAQ went up 3.34% today. Most of the big names gained big values of course. Apple gained 1.67%, Micro-Soft gained 5.11%, Amazon up 4.51%. Even Tesla surged 4.81% and regained the $800 level today.
So, Russia’s attack is a good thing for all stockholders? Bad thing for Ukraine? Simple as that? The bigger problems might rising after this incident. China is watching closely what US and others are doing about this Russian war game and we’ve all witnessed that they couldn’t do anything at all, physically.
What could be China’s next possible action? Taiwan is in the exactly same position as Ukraine to China. In some ways, Taiwan is in a worse position than Ukraine. There are not many countries left as friends with Taiwan anymore. Let’s wait and see.
TSMC is the only protection the Taiwanese have at the moment. Chinese are afraid of TSMC’s semiconductor production, not Biden or whatever.
It was a crazy day in agricultural markets today as well. Last night, soybean, soybean meal, and corn hit the limit up but in the day market, in the end, heavy selling poured into the market.
As expected, the Chinese were buying Apr and May Brazilian soybeans and some more new crop US soybeans. Still, looking for more US soybean meals. Overall markets were too heavy to keep its direction to the North anyway. Corn went up 1.65%, Soybean oil went up 1.81%, Wheat went up 5.71% but soybean fell 0.85% and soybean meal was downed 1.32%. Heavy selling off day, making Russian war game as a very effective excuse.
3 million tons of corn, 1 million tons of wheat, and about half a million tons of vegetable oil are moving to the world from the Black seas every month. If the war goes on more than a week, agricultural markets will be on fire again, if not, there might be some more profit-taking selling is possible. But let’s see how the Chinese are moving at any price break.
They’ve to buy anything in the market from soybeans to meat for their people. Would they wait for more breaks?