DEC 15

[12/15] Dec FED meeting finished today, and they’ve set up the schedule. End the bond purchasing program by the end of next Mar and raise the interest rate by the last quarter of year 2022. That’s about in the line of most expectations. No surprise at all but seems like investors and financing markets expected a bit tighter than this. After FED news opened, all stock markets and major commodities were totally reversed. At the end of that day, DJ up 0.29%, S&P up 0.31% and NASDAQ up 0.1% today. Crude oil also came back from another bottom, Brent oil futures up 18 cents. USD Index up 0.2%, settled at 96.737. As mentioned yesterday, inflations and pandemic are happening at the same time, but FED have to decide to do something, couldn’t wait for another month. Longer pandemic means, more money have to be supplied to the economic. If not, Turkey could be the case. But at the same time, inflation need to be controlled. So, what can be done? In Ag market, similar tones as other commodity markets. Just following the trend. Soybean oil surged nicely from the technical bottom, but it doesn’t mean that chart actually hot the meaningful bottom now. With a little bit of rest, soybean oil could go down another 6~8 cents per pound easily. Look at recent wheat market, who would expect this kind of downturn in Oct? The biggest reason of this break is coming from the exit of fund money, the second one would be the nice returns of Australian wheat, but we need to wait and see a few more weeks for that. Because heavy rains during the harvest time, no one knows what could effect on the wheat itself in quality wise. Production numbers would set up the new record once more but don’t be too sure. Anyway, MATIF, Chicago, Australian wheat cash market, all downed hard this week. Chinese corn futures market is rising fast recently. Someone miscounted production numbers again? What’s going on? Ukraine exported 1.2M MT of corn to China in Nov and they have about 10 M more to ship out to China in this marketing year. Don’t forget, they have another 10M MT of US corn in their book. Looks like China have plenty of corn stocks with their 270M MT of local corn production. Let’s do think some other ways, what if China just allow the planting of their own GMO corn to the field? Chinese origin NON-GMO corn is the item actually listed in Dalian Futures Market. Long holders receive local Chinese corn which is NON-GMO at the end. If Chinese farmers are planting GMO corn (MADE IN CHINA) is it going to be the new listed items in the market or just mingled them all together? Is Chinese government allowing GMO labelling made of CHINESE GMO CORN? Seriously, are they ready for GMO markets? USA, EU, Korea and Japan, still struggling socially what to do about GM foods over 20 years. China is the second biggest corn producing country in the world and they are strongly claiming that their corn is NON-GMO. Blink of eyes, 270M MT of NON-GMO corn becomes GMO, what could happen to the corn world? Chinese are preparing something and that something seems very big ones. Too much? Really hope so…

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