DEC 09

[12/09] TURN AOUND THURSDAY becomes a kind of market law? It was turn around Thursday. Equity market downed with some profit taking selling. OMICRON fears are now weakening fast, and it was really good excuse for profit taking today. Since this Monday, DJ up 3.4%, S&P up 3.6% and NASDAQ up 4.7% and today showed a bit of retreat. DJ fell 0.05%, S&P fell 0.7% and NASDAQ downed 1.5%, the biggest fall of three main indexes. Chinese the biggest real estate company, EVERGRANDE is officially gone, and a couple of more related companies will be followed soon. So, is China OK? Well, Chinese government have been trying to cover this EVERGRANDE incident for last 4 months period. Seems like, they are ready to let it go finally. Some problems might occur in international money market, relate this issue. Still, so many things unknown, which companies are relating with this EVERGRANDE incident. So many rumors, circling around. Crude oil finally downed a bit, retreated 2.6% and settled under $75 per barrel. In Ag market today, USDA WASDE day and there are not many changes from the early estimate. Mostly, bearish toned report. Soybean, soybean meal and corn market up a bit from the yesterday but soybean oil and wheat were downed. USDA changed Chinese soybean production numbers from 19M MT of the last month to 16.4M MT today, but USDA have not changed import numbers as 100M MT. Other than this, not many big factors on today’s USDA report. Soybean oil dropped another 1.7% today. The most recent top was 64.05 cents on Oct 21st and today’s end at 54.85 cents. It was big drop and clearly shows strong tendency to go down further after EPA’s projection numbers reported this week. Big falls of soybean oil price, makes crushing margin retreated a lot. Technically, if 54 cents level cannot defend, then next support level would be 50 cents which has been formed around mid-Jun. Biden admin knew, when they change some rules in Bio energy arena, they can control the vegetable oil price and lower edible oil price could relate to lower food price faster than any others. It was clever move and US farmers are welcoming for more corn usage in bio ethanol industry. Oil refineries will hate Biden, instead. Who has more votes? Famers or oil billionaires? Can you call that as populist decision?




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